Population policy and projection upto 2050

India was the first nation to launched a family planning programme in 1952. Though the birth rate started decreasing, it was accompanied by a sharp decrease in death rate, leading to an overall increase in population.The early concept of population policy covered both mortality and fertility and did not exclusively focus on fertility. There was also a recognition of the need to improve the quality of life of the people by lowering the burden of disease or morbidity, promoting universal primary education and eradicating illiteracy, exploitation and poverty.

In 1976, the first National Population Policy was formulated and tabled in Parliament.

The intent of National Population Policy-NPP-2000 is to eliminate unmet contraceptive needs by providing high quality reproductive healthcare. In particular, the NPP-2000 aims to address flaws in healthcare infrastructure and to achieve a total fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman by 2010. Main objectives of NPP-2000 are:-

  • Converge service delivery at village level
  • Empowering women for improved health and nutrition needs for family welfare services
  • Child health and survival
  • Meeting the unmet needs of the under-served population groups
  • Use of diverse health care providers
  • Collaboration with and commitments from the non-government sector
  • Mainstreaming Indian systems of medicine and homeopathy
  • Contraceptive technology and research on reproductive and child health (RCH)
  • Providing for the older population x. Information education and communication

Population Growth Rate in India has reduced substantially which is evident from the following:-

  •       The percentage decadal growth rate of the country has declined significantly from 21.5% for the period 1991-2001 to 17.7% during 2001-2011.
  • Total Fertility Rate (TFR) was 3.2 at the time when National Population Policy, 2000 was adopted and the same has declined to 2.3 as per Sample registration Survey (SRS) 2013 conducted by the Registrar General of India.

Jansankhya Sthirata Kosh/National Population Stabilization Fund has adopted the following strategies as a population control measure:-

  • Prerna Strategy:- JSK has launched this strategy for helping to push up the age of marriage of girls and delay in first child and spacing in second child the birth of children in the interest of health of young mothers and infants. The couple who adopt this strategy awarded suitably. This helps to change the mindsets of the community.
  • Santushti Strategy:- Under this strategy, Jansankhya Sthirata Kosh, invites private sector gynaecologists and vasectomy surgeons to conduct sterilization operations in Public Private Partnership mode. The private hospitals/nursing home who achieved target to 10 or more are suitably awarded as per strategy.
  • National Helpline: – JSK also running a call centers for providing free advice on reproductive health, family planning, maternal health and child health etc. Toll free no. is 1800116555.
  • Advocacy & IEC activities:- JSK as a part of its awareness and advocacy efforts on population stabilization, has established networks and partnerships with other ministries, development partners, private sectors, corporate and professional bodies for  spreading its activities through electronic media, print media, workshop, walkathon, and other multi-level activities etc. at the national, state, district and block level.

India, projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country around 2027, is expected to add nearly 273 million people between now and 2050 and will remain the most populated country through the end of the current century according to a UN report.

Population projection is a scientific attempt to peep into the future population scenario, conditioned by making certain assumptions, using data relating to the past available at that point of time. Assumptions used and their probability of adhering in future, forms a critical input in this mathematical effort. Predicting the future course of human fertility and mortality is not easy, especially when looking beyond much further in time. Medical and health intervention strategies, food production and its equitable availability, climatic variability, socio-cultural setting, politicoeconomic conditions and a host of other factors influence population dynamics, making it a somewhat unpredictable exercise. Therefore, much caution must be exercised when either making or using the population projections and the context of various conditions imposed, should not be lost sight of on the basis of past behaviour and the likely future scenario assumed. Different population projections at the country level are made by the Government, National and International agencies from time to time. In addition, individual demographers make projections for the country as a whole and sometimes at the sub-national level also. The international agencies who make projections for the world as a whole and also for individual countries are the United Nations Population Division, the World Bank, the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) etc. The need for population projection in India at various levels and by different components like age, sex, rural-urban etc., for the use by the official agencies uniformly, both at the center and the states was keenly felt in 1958 on the eve of the formulation of the third five year plan.

The Planning Commission constituted a Technical Group on Population Projections in 1996 under the chairmanship of the Registrar General, India with the following objectives:-
  • To review the methodology of Population Projections adopted in the past
  • To prepare fresh projections of mortality status and parameters of fertility conditions based on changed pattern of contraceptive use and proportion of married females (1991 Census) and other characteristics
  • To make population projections afresh up to 2016
  • To prepare projections of the possible period when NRR = 1 will be achieved by the States / UTs and the country as a whole.

Below is the population projections by GOI

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